Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? ↗

Price fell 2.5pp from 19.5% to 17.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 17.0%.

Days to resolution: 57 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline ≤90 days, positive action required), but with price at 17% (≤20%), the boundary rule weakens theta’s push; absent fresh, concrete ouster process steps, time decay alone argues against further downside for NO. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (heightened regime stress), and the trend is DOWN for NO, so directionally they align, but much of it is rhetoric and broad pressure rather than concrete ouster steps. Momentum looks plateauing within the window: one concrete catalyst (new U.S. sanctions EO) and a worsening fuel-supply warning, echoed widely, but no signals of internal splits, formal succession moves, or mass destabilization. After clustering: distinct momentum events are (1) U.S. sanctions EO increasing pressure, (2) Díaz-Canel’s admission of imminent fuel crunch; counter-signal is (1) regime-cohesion/normalcy propaganda. Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=1. Remaining space: 17pp. Hard rules: Rule 4 (plateauing mention) and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary ≤20% → cap further move, prefer STALL absent fresh direct-process catalysts) both point to STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.