Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗

Price fell 2.5pp from 23.0% to 20.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 20.5%.

Days to resolution: 366 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon since the deadline is more than 90 days away. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT news events, and both context articles are generic, non-informative headlines about the 2027 French presidential election with no substantive content or candidate-specific developments. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), but the news is STARVED—there is no evidence supporting or contradicting the move. Momentum assessment: the story is not intensifying or even plateauing; it is simply starved of meaningful coverage. Signal classification: both events are NOISE, so momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 20.5pp (from 20.5% to 0%). With no concrete news, the move appears to be liquidity- or positioning-driven rather than information-driven. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 2 (BALANCED MIXED) binds, as there is no signal quality on either side and the news is not directional or asymmetric. Therefore, action must be STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.