Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? ↗

Price fell 2.4pp from 96.8% to 94.4% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 94.4%.

Days to resolution: 50 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market with a ≤90-day deadline and a positive action required for NO; the trend is DOWN and thus consistent with theta, but at ≥80% the theta effect is diminished. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (survival) via pieces arguing the U.S. will retreat or Iran can outlast pressure; the trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming less likely — these ALIGN, but the items are stale and rhetorical rather than concrete actions. After clustering: 2 distinct ★DIRECT items; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=2, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Newsflow in-window is mostly commentary and threats without fresh, resolution-quality actions, so momentum looks plateauing/starved. With zero fresh direct signals, the front-loaded dip looks driven by time-decay/liquidity rather than a new catalyst, and boundary proximity limits follow-through; Remaining space: 5.6pp. Hard rules: Rule 4 (plateauing) and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) point to STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.