Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.8pp from 23.5% to 30.3% over 8.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 27.9%, down 2.4pp from peak, 13.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 21.9%, 72h range: 16.4%-40.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026; NO = a qualifying meeting occurs. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: UP (from 24% to 30%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: UP — aligned
No ★ DIRECT evidence of a meeting being scheduled/held/canceled appeared; instead, distinct events were (E) kinetic escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and (E) Iran’s seizure/redirection of a US‑sanctioned tanker, versus (D) Trump’s de‑escalatory framing that the ceasefire holds and talks/proposal rhetoric. Those escalations make a near-term bilateral meeting less likely, and with time-decay favoring “no meeting,” a 6–7pp repricing is reasonable process impact. Net: the rise was justified by news plus theta, so only limited mean reversion is warranted.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.