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mr
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗
will-the-republican-party-control-the-senate-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
· Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · category: Congress, Earn 4%, Elections, Global Elections, Main Election, Midterms, Parent For Derivative, Politics, Senate, US Election, United States, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: 0635bb94-9c1a-40e6-a810-70812d4d1503
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· THETA_TIME_STOP
·
+$0.00
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
54.5% / 57.5%
move_start
49.5%
reversal
+3.0pp
move size / hours
8.0pp / 105.5h
shape
spike
72h range
50.5%—57.5% (Δ7.0pp)
since peak
2.0h
Price rose 8.0pp from 49.5% to 57.5% over 105.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 54.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 335 → 21
quality: HIGH
tokens: 17944
article_precursor
relevant
Fetterman: Democrats Are Literally Running On "F*ck Trump," "I Find Myself Isolated By My Party"
article_thesis
noise
After providing competitor Karen Bass with incendiary interview video, Spencer Pratt launches a violent tirade against CBS, accusing them of turning his campaign into a farce
article_thesis
relevant
Tennessee redistricting debate marked by fiery oratory about Black struggles for voting rights | Chattanooga Times Free Press
article_thesis
noise
University of Wisconsin-Superior chancellor will lead UW system, for now
article_thesis
relevant
Spencer Pratt talks Los Angeles mayoral campaign, debate performance: Watch the full interview
article_thesis
relevant
Louisiana Hearing Erupts Over GOP Push to Eliminate Majority-Black Districts
article_precursor
relevant
Spencer Pratt declares he's 'done' with CBS, vows to ignore network if elected LA mayor
article_thesis
relevant
Trump's Southern 'Revenge' Tour Gains Momentum Following Indiana Victory - Internewscast Journal
article_precursor
relevant
Officials, community leaders to rally over new Tennessee congressional districts
article_antithesis
relevant
Healey campaign admits to being outraised by Minogue in new plea for donations
article_thesis
relevant
Campaigns enter homestretch as Trump, Obama try to whip up support for Georgia candidates - Now Georgia
article_thesis
relevant
Trump asserts greater control over public spaces in Washington, DC
article_antithesis
relevant
Raucous races leave women in position to lead trustee offices in Hobart, Ross townships
article_thesis
noise
(LETTERS) Sun Bucks and Wyoming GOP endorsement
article_antithesis
relevant
Maine Democrats shelve criticism of national party's Joe Baldacci endorsement
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 13691 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Republicans control the Senate after the 2026 midterms; NO=Democrats/others control it. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 50% to 58%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — election/confirmation market No ★ DIRECT events indicate a structural change in Senate control odds; the listed items are generic/contextual (local redistricting debates, talk-show quotes, generic approval/poll blurbs, state-level tidbits) and do not satisfy the market’s resolution criteria. With a 105h steady rise on thin/no verified catalysts, this looks like flow/narrative drift; the 8pp spike is partially unjustified and already fading, so a further mean reversion off the peak is likely.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL