← back to pipeline
mom
Iran Nuke before 2027? ↗
iran-nuke-before-2027
· Iran Nuke before 2027? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, Nuclear, Politics, World
· resolves
run_id: 098e03ea-ac92-4863-a337-2db69fceccca
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
DOWN
current price
8.1%
anchor → trigger
10.6% → 8.1%
cusum @ trigger
-6.04
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
8.1%—9.3%
(Δ1.2pp)
tick density (6h)
0.50
Price fell 2.5pp from 10.6% to 8.1% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 8.1%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 369 → 84
quality: HIGH
tokens: 32854
iran_nuke_events
noise
Indian airlines hit hardest as Dubai limits foreign flights till May 31 amid West Asia war: Report
article_precursor
relevant
Scholar tracks uptick in Iran threats on diaspora, others question deporting official
article_thesis
noise
US says Iran ceasefire holds despite exchange of fire; UAE under attack
article_antithesis
noise
US Central Command Says It Destroyed Six Iranian Boats; Iran Denies Naval Losses
article_thesis
noise
Osäkerheten om säkerheten ger Iran makt i Hormuzsundet
article_thesis
noise
Hegseth and Caine pressed on reports of 'kamikaze dolphins' in Iran waters: 'Like sharks with laser beams?' - AOL
article_thesis
noise
Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks, sees progress
article_thesis
noise
Pete Hegseth Asked About Bizarre Report of 'Kamikaze Dolphins' in Strait of Hormuz: 'Like Sharks With Laser Beams?'
article_precursor
relevant
Stocks Advance, Oil Falls As Traders Eye US-Iran Ceasefire
article_thesis
noise
US-Iran tensions: Regional peace, stability linked to collective restraint, respect for sovereignty, says Pakistan
article_thesis
noise
No large weapons on board sunk Iranian boats -- Pentagon
article_antithesis
noise
US launches Project Freedom to secure Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
article_thesis
noise
UAE intercepts missiles and drones from Iran
article_precursor
relevant
Pentagon: Iran attacked US forces over 10 times since ceasefire
article_thesis
noise
"Trump accuses pope of 'endangering a lot of Catholics' with Iran stance"
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.2.0 · 12804 tokens
Days to resolution: 239 days. Theta-bleed check: Deadline >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next 2–3 days and does not by itself support further downside in NO. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there were no direct resolution-touching events), while the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), so there is no clear alignment between news and price. News momentum on the nuclear criterion is starved/plateauing: coverage centers on U.S.–Iran ceasefire skirmishes and Hormuz security, with zero nuclear-program developments; the front-loaded dip looks catalyst-light. After clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 30 articles. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 8.1pp. Hard-rule check: Rule 2 (Balanced MIXED → STALL) and Rule 4 (use of “starved/plateauing” → STALL) both bind; Rule 7 (≤20% boundary without fresh catalysts) also favors STALL.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.