Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 12.5% to 15.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 15.5%.

Days to resolution: 25 days. Theta-bleed check: With a deadline ≤90 days and a positive-action outcome (win), absence of concrete progress is bearish for YES; since the move is UP, time decay will oppose further gains unless there’s a fresh catalyst. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED: pro-Pratt debate/viral-ad coverage (weak quality, no numbers) versus a concrete counter-signal of Kamala Harris endorsing Bass, so the UP trend is not cleanly aligned with high-quality evidence. News momentum appears plateauing, with multiple opinion/viral-echo pieces and no credible polling or institutional shifts; after clustering there are two distinct pro-Pratt items (debate occurred; viral ad) and one counter (Harris endorsement). Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=1. Without new polling, endorsements, or fundraising data in Pratt’s favor, follow-through is likely limited; at 15.5% the Remaining space: 84.5pp, but theta-bleed at ≤20% and lack of hard catalysts bias toward stabilization. Step 3 hard rule check: Balanced MIXED and the use of “plateauing” invoke Rules 2 and 4, and theta-bleed + boundary (Rule 7) further support STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.