Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 4.5pp from 42.0% to 37.5% over 4h (spike). Now at 37.5%.

Days to resolution: 47 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline ≤90 days and a positive action (Cepeda must win) means theta-bleed is active; in the absence of news this would favor NO drifting up, but here fresh polling provides countervailing momentum for YES. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (none provided), while the CONTEXT is a wave of credible polls (CNC/Cambio and aggregator updates) showing Cepeda leading and projected to win a runoff; the trend is DOWN in NO, so news and move ALIGN. Momentum appears INTENSIFYING via multiple outlets amplifying the same new polling wave rather than mere opinion pieces. After clustering, this is essentially one distinct polling event driving the narrative; other items (debate scheduling, campaign barbs, one-off strategy stories) are noise. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 37.5pp. Hard rule check: No news-trend conflict (Rule 1), not balanced mixed (Rule 2), no spike exhaustion (Rule 5), and theta-bleed is noted but outweighed by the polling wave (Rule 8 considered).

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.