Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? ↗

Price rose 8.6pp from 38.9% to 47.5% over 26.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 44.2%, down 3.2pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a next US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs and J.D. Vance attends; NO = no such meeting by the deadline or it occurs without Vance. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2 (US–Iran direct talks confirmed; new Iran advisor appointed), D=3 (Islamabad talks failed; Trump considers military action; “Project Freedom”/blockade pressure) (R=0). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=2, D=3). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 39% to 48%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence exists; instead, the 8.6pp spike occurred without any fresh, resolution-adjacent signals. Notably, there is no announcement of a next US–Iran meeting, no scheduling details, and no confirmation that Vance would attend; the only fresh Vance headline is a domestic Iowa stop, which is neutral to slightly bearish for near-term attendance, while older items about “active talks” are process-only and were already priced in at 39%. Given zero incremental E signals, the move looks flow-driven and has already begun to retrace; expect further mean reversion.

Kill switches:
- White House formally announces the next US–Iran diplomatic meeting with an attendee list that includes Vice President J.D. Vance
- Official statement that Vance will lead or attend the next round of US–Iran talks (with date/venue specified)
- Mediator (e.g., Pakistan/Oman/Qatar) announces a scheduled US–Iran meeting at VP/leader level naming Vance
- Credible pool report or press guidance listing Vance’s travel to a US–Iran meeting
- Photo/video evidence of Vance arriving at or participating in a US–Iran diplomatic meeting

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.