Kash Patel out by June 30? ↗

Price fell 11.6pp from 61.1% to 49.5% over 16.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 54.5%, up 5.0pp from trough, 2.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 60.5%, 72h range: 49.5%-71.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Kash Patel is removed/resigns/fired by June 30; NO = Patel remains in office past June 30. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 61% to 50%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: the only fresh pro-YES item is “Trump set to oust FBI chief after dinner shooting uproar” (E7-style report), while a prior piece challenged ouster rumors (“Politico story…is fishy”). That single report does not equal a formal termination or official notice, so it fails settlement-level criteria; with >60 days remaining and only one opposing E, a theta-aligned drop is reasonable. Given the largely process/rumor tone and lack of multiple fresh, verified pro-YES signals, the 11.6pp decline is justified by time-decay and narrative ebb rather than a clear overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.