Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 41.5% to 35.5% over 41.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 38.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 21.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Cepeda maintains/extends polling lead and/or rivals remain fragmented; NO = Cepeda’s support erodes materially, or the opposition consolidates behind a single strong challenger. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=1, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 42% to 36%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline
Logical Divergence: Yes — price fell while incremental signals favored YES; no Strong Divergence. The CNC poll wave (May 3–4) putting Cepeda first and competitive head-to-heads was already priced; the only fresh item (May 6, Americas Quarterly) highlights right-wing infighting over who faces Cepeda — a pro-YES development — and there are no ★ DIRECT resolution-level shifts (no withdrawals, disqualifications, or formal coalition deals). Given thin incremental news and a 6pp steady drop, the move looks flow-driven and overstated; partial reversion is warranted.

Kill switches:
- A new CNC/Atlas Intel poll shows Cepeda trailing De la Espriella (or another rival) in a head-to-head by >3pp.
- Paloma Valencia formally suspends her campaign and endorses Abelardo de la Espriella, with a unified right-wing coalition announced.
- Prosecutor or court action disqualifies Cepeda or opens a major formal investigation that materially damages his viability.
- A major centrist bloc (e.g., Fajardo-aligned forces) endorses a single anti-Cepeda candidate, signaling broad consolidation.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.