Iran leadership change by June 30? ↗

Price rose 5.0pp from 18.5% to 23.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 23.5%.

Days to resolution: 67 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, YES requires positive action, but trend is UP so theta-bleed is not a direct factor here). Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of a leadership change or imminent process toward one. The trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, but the news does not align: all coverage is CONTEXT, focused on Mojtaba Khamenei's health, lack of public appearances, and regime stability, but with explicit statements that he is mentally sharp, still participating in government, and that the regime remains stable despite recent turmoil. No new actors or concrete actions are present; the story is plateauing, with repeated commentary and no escalation or process steps toward a leadership change. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1 (explicit regime stability statement). Remaining space: 76.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 4 ("plateauing," "not intensifying," "not confirmed") applies, requiring STALL. No evidence of a resolution-class event or reversal catalyst, but also no support for further upward movement.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.