Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 29.0% to 32.0% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 32.0%.

Days to resolution: 252 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short horizon, as the deadline is well beyond 90 days. The trend is UP, implying YES (Pezeshkian out by Dec 31) is becoming more likely. The ★DIRECT news is MIXED but leans toward process instability and fragility in Iran’s leadership, with repeated references to fragile ceasefires, urgent negotiations, and a leadership transition after the killing of the Supreme Leader. However, none of the ★DIRECT events confirm a concrete step toward Pezeshkian’s ouster—most are about diplomatic tension, trust gaps, and negotiation challenges, not removal or resignation. After clustering, there are 0 distinct concrete ouster events (all are process/rhetoric), so momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. The news is plateauing: it reflects ongoing instability and negotiation, but not intensifying toward a resolution event. Remaining space: 18pp (from 32% to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: The signals are not highly MIXED (no strong counter-signals), but the absence of any concrete ouster action means the move lacks hard support; per Principle 1, quality outweighs quantity, and rhetoric/process is not enough for continuation. This is a classic plateau/echo scenario—no new catalyst, just ongoing tension.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.