Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 18.5% to 13.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 13.5%.

Days to resolution: 27 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-limited election market where a positive action (Pratt winning) must occur; with ≤90 days left, absence of news would favor NO, but we do have some pro-YES news in this window. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (Pratt making the TV debate lineup is a concrete, exposure-boosting step); the trend is DOWN for NO (NO becoming less likely) — these ALIGN. Momentum looks limited: one concrete action (LA Times confirms debate qualification) plus lower-quality items (a partisan op-ed and a local piece about ads), with no verified polling or major endorsements — suggesting a catalyst-driven dip that may be plateauing rather than intensifying. After clustering: 2 distinct events from 3 ★DIRECT articles; Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=0. With price at 13.5%, Remaining space: 13.5pp; boundary effects near ≤20% and theta-bleed typically favor NO absent strong catalysts, so thin pro-YES signals argue for STALL rather than further immediate downside or a sharp rebound. Step 3 checks: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) not triggered; Rule 4’s “plateauing” language points to STALL; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) not binding since move = 5.0pp (not >5pp); Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) biases to STALL without a stronger fresh catalyst.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.