Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? ↗

Price fell 2.5pp from 44.0% to 41.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 41.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 44.5%, 72h range: 22.6%-74.1%] [EVR: 72h range 51.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 63 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), so in the absence of positive news, the price should drift downward. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO—multiple articles explicitly state that J.D. Vance is not attending the upcoming US-Iran diplomatic meeting, with the White House confirming that Witkoff and Kushner (not Vance) are the designated envoys. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming more likely, and this aligns with the news. News momentum is plateauing: the same concrete information (Vance not attending) is being confirmed by several reputable sources, but there is no new escalation or reversal—just confirmation and digestion. After clustering, there is 1 distinct high-quality ★DIRECT event (official confirmation of Vance's absence) from several articles, and no credible counter-signals suggesting Vance will attend. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 41.5pp (from 41.5% to 0%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not highly mixed, no boundary, no spike exhaustion, and the single concrete action is widely confirmed, not just echo. The move is steady and news-driven, not liquidity noise. The EVR (extreme volatility regime) is explained by the news, as the market is digesting the official confirmation.