Starmer out by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price rose 4.2pp from 6.1% to 10.3% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 10.3%.

Days to resolution: 54 days. Theta-bleed check: this is a positive-action removal market within 90 days; absence of concrete process is typically bearish for YES, and today’s move is UP, so theta-bleed does not support the move. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (in fact, starved) — there are zero direct, process-type signals of a resignation, formal challenge, or no-confidence mechanism, while the trend is UP for YES. Momentum looks plateauing/starved: most coverage is macro (US–Iran, markets) or speculative/opinion about potential Labour losses and pressure on Starmer, not concrete steps toward ouster. After clustering, there are no distinct actionable events toward removal; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With a front-loaded rise lacking a matching DIRECT catalyst, follow-through looks limited; remaining space is large, but at 10.3% the base case without process news is stabilization or drift down, not continued grind up. Remaining space: 89.7pp. Hard rules: RULE 2 (Balanced Mixed) and RULE 4 (plateauing/starved phrasing) bind → STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.