US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? ↗

Price rose 7.9pp from 13.6% to 21.5% over 15.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 19.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a US–Iran peace deal is reached before Trump’s China visit; NO = no deal before that visit. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=2 (priced-in: E=3, D=2). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 14% to 22%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; incremental signals were modestly pro-YES (Cessation D-collapse: raw D=2 → collapsed D=1). Fresh E signals included reports that a three‑stage plan with a temporary halt is being studied and Trump saying the war will be “over quickly” as Iran reviews a US proposal; opposing D signals were Iran’s statement that talks are “unreasonable” after strikes and an IRGC line rejecting nuclear talks. These are process-level developments, not resolution, but multiple fresh pro‑deal signals can justify a 5–10pp repricing; the 7.9pp rise sits within that range, so the spike was largely justified rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council or FM formally rejects the US proposal and suspends talks
- US State Department/White House states there will be no deal before Trump’s China visit
- A major US–Iran direct clash with casualties (e.g., confirmed strikes on mainland/ships) resumes
- Trump advances the China trip to an earlier date, compressing the window to near-zero
- Conversely, an official announcement of a signed or initialed US–Iran peace framework before the trip

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.