Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 25.5% to 32.5% over 1.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 28.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 18.0%, 72h range: 11.5%-42.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally closes its national airspace (e.g., CAO/IR NOTAM or government order) at any time up to May 8; NO = no such closure by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. This is a CESSATION market.
Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 32%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No ★ DIRECT signals of an Iranian airspace closure (no NOTAMs, no CAO/IR announcements, no airport shutdown orders) appear; headlines are CONTEXT (Hormuz tensions, UN concern, Trump rhetoric, Israeli airspace alert talk) and do not meet settlement criteria. With zero verified E/D signals supporting a closure, a 7pp pop looks flow/attention-driven and has already partly retraced; expect further mean reversion toward pre-move levels.

Kill switches:
- Iran Civil Aviation Organization (CAO/IR) issues a NOTAM formally closing Iranian airspace before May 8.
- IRNA or Tasnim reports an official order suspending all civilian flights across Iran effective immediately.
- Major Iranian airports (e.g., Tehran Imam Khomeini, Mehrabad, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz) announce government-mandated flight suspensions.
- ICAO or Eurocontrol publishes an operational bulletin confirming Iranian airspace is closed to civilian traffic.
- Widespread FlightRadar24/ADS-B diversions around Iranian FIR accompanied by on-record ATC/authority confirmation of closure.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.