US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 12.0pp from 31.5% to 43.5% over 18.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 37.5%, down 6.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a formal, durable US–Iran peace agreement is reached/signed before the deadline; NO = talks stall/rejections/hostilities continue and no deal by the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=3). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 32% to 44%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: the rise had opposing D=2 (<4). The key fresh E was Iran submitting a formal proposal via Pakistani mediators (process-level, reopens a pathway), reinforced by Trump’s statement that Iran is “desperate to make a deal”; the main D followed later — Trump rejecting the proposal and vowing to maintain the Hormuz blockade — explaining the quick retrace, not the initial spike. No headline claims a signed “permanent peace deal,” but the proposal is a resolution-adjacent shift that reasonably supports a 5–15pp repricing per the ceasefire/deal exception. Net: the 12pp spike was justified by process news; the subsequent reversal reflects the later rejection, so the original move itself was FAIR.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.