Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.7pp from 54.9% to 51.2% over 1h (steady). Now at 51.2%.

Days to resolution: 248 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this horizon, so time decay does not drive the trend. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), and the ★DIRECT news is MIXED but leans toward resistance to the trend: the most significant new event is the arrival of a top US diplomat in Caracas "as part of a post-Maduro transition plan," which is a concrete process signal toward regime change (supporting the NO side, i.e., that Maduro will not remain leader). However, several other ★DIRECT events focus on the US authorizing Maduro to use Venezuelan state funds for his legal defense in a US drug trafficking case—this is a process signal, but it does not directly indicate regime stability or instability; it is more a procedural/legal development than a signal about Maduro's hold on power. There is also a cluster of news about a US soldier betting on Maduro's removal, which is not a process signal but rather a scandal/side story (NOISE). After clustering, there are two distinct ★DIRECT events: (1) US diplomat arrival (momentum for NO), (2) US legal defense payment authorization (neutral to slightly resistance, as it enables Maduro's defense but does not strengthen his political position). Momentum assessment: the story is plateauing, with no intensifying regime-change actions or new escalatory moves. Momentum signals: trend=1 (US diplomat arrival), counter=1 (legal defense payment authorization). Remaining space: 49pp. Step 3 hard rule check: The news is ASYMMETRIC MIXED, with the regime-change process signal (US diplomat) being higher quality than the legal defense payment, but the overall news flow is not intensifying and is plateauing. Per Rule 3, conviction must be ≤ MEDIUM. Per Rule 4, the use of "plateauing" and lack of intensification means action must be STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.