Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? ↗

Price fell 8.5pp from 54.0% to 45.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 45.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 62.0%, 72h range: 45.5%-64.0%]

Days to resolution: 253 days. Theta-bleed is negligible here (deadline > 90 days), so time decay does not drive the trend. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: all six ★DIRECT articles cluster to a single real-world event—Cuba's government, with Díaz-Canel present, confirming and participating in meetings with US officials in Havana. This is a concrete, public-facing action by Díaz-Canel, directly contradicting any imminent ouster scenario and demonstrating his continued leadership role. There are no ★DIRECT signals indicating regime instability, removal proceedings, or loss of control; instead, the news confirms Díaz-Canel's active engagement in high-level diplomacy. The story is plateauing: multiple outlets confirm the same event, but there is no intensifying crisis or new actors. After clustering, there is 1 distinct momentum signal (Díaz-Canel confirmed in power and acting as head of state), and 0 counter signals. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 45.5pp (to 0%). The move is steady, not a spike, and the news fully supports the downward grind. Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not highly mixed, not echo (the event is widely confirmed, not just repeated), and the move is not exhausted. Principle 1 (signal quality) applies: a single high-quality, direct confirmation of Díaz-Canel's leadership outweighs any contextual noise.