Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price rose 8.8pp from 59.2% to 68.0% over 43.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 65.8%, down 2.2pp from peak, 25.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Mojtaba Khamenei remains head of state through Dec 31, 2026; NO = he is no longer head of state by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: UP (from 59% to 68%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: UP — aligned
No Logical Divergence: incremental flow is mildly pro-YES and does not meet Strong Divergence thresholds. The strongest resolution-adjacent items are on-record officials saying he is in “complete good health” and “actively managing affairs” (supports YES but is priced-in), while newer pieces are contextual (IRGC “new rules” over Hormuz; a symbolic allegiance event) and one article noting he is “still not seen,” which is bearish in a leadership market but singular and not corroborated. None of these directly satisfy/fail the settlement criterion (who is head of state on 12/31/2026), and with a far-term deadline this UP move is theta-aligned; opposing (bearish) incremental signals are <3, so the 8.8pp repricing is reasonable to carry. Overall, the rise looks justified by time decay plus slightly supportive context; no strong mean-reversion case.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.