Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? ↗

Price rose 5.1pp from 2.5% to 7.6% over 1h (steady). Now at 7.6%.

Days to resolution: 238 days. Theta-bleed is not active (deadline >90 days), so absence of news does not mechanically push this lower in the near term. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED, with one pro-Sall opinion piece but no concrete process step; the trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, but the available news does not align with a hard catalyst. Coverage in the window is starved of actions and leans opinion/analysis; after clustering: 0 distinct action events from 5 total items, and China’s stated preference for a woman SG is rhetorical rather than a formal stance. Per Principle 4, all items are rhetoric/opinion and count as NOISE; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With a steady >5pp move on no actionable catalyst and some negative contextual rhetoric, the risk is a partial retrace rather than follow-through. Remaining space: 92.4pp. Hard rules: Rule 4 (plateauing/no fresh catalyst) blocks CONTINUE; Rule 5 (spike >5pp with no fresh catalyst) leans REVERSE; no other binding rules apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.