Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price rose 6.3pp from 31.2% to 37.5% over 13.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 35.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 33.5%, 72h range: 29.5%-50.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = the U.S. undertakes an invasion of Iran before 2027; NO = no U.S. invasion by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 31% to 38%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; news flow is mixed and does not specifically advance “invasion” (ground entry) odds. The clearest E signals are U.S.-side offensive posture items (CENTCOM requesting Dark Eagle hypersonic deployment; reports Trump will review new attack plans), which speak to strikes/pressure, not an invasion threshold, while counter-signals include USS Gerald R. Ford returning home (D4) and a reported imminent revised Iranian peace proposal (D7). Given that escalation-to-strikes ≠ invasion under settlement logic, a 6.3pp climb on process/pressure news looks partially unjustified; expect some mean reversion from the peak.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.