US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ↗

Price fell 8.1pp from 61.6% to 53.5% over 23.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 55.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 13.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 61.0%, 72h range: 53.5%-72.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a US–Iran nuclear deal is signed/implemented before 2027; NO = no nuclear deal by then. This is a CESSATION/deal market. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 62% to 54%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence: the drop aligns with time-decay, and there are no ≥3 opposing pro-deal signals. The only nuclear-specific item (“Exclusive: Iran agrees to hold nuclear talks within 30 days”) is process-only and does not satisfy resolution; the dominant ACTION-tier news (“Trump rejects Iran’s response/peace proposal,” oil spikes, “ceasefire on life support”) is not about a nuclear agreement and therefore fails the settlement criteria for this market. Given a far-term deadline and lack of fresh, direct pro-deal breakthroughs, the 8pp decline is primarily theta-aligned repricing rather than an unjustified overreaction, so limited reversion is warranted at most.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.