Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price rose 18.4pp from 25.1% to 43.5% over 16.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 30.0%, down 13.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Powell is removed/resigns and is out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026; NO = he remains in office through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 25% to 44%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence, but clear logical divergence: a 18.4pp spike occurred with zero DIRECT signals moving the process toward removal. There were no resignation/firing announcements, no formal nomination or Senate scheduling, and no official launch of a removal proceeding; presidential insults/AI image posts and a “could be resurrected” inquiry comment are rhetoric/context that do not satisfy resolution criteria. Given the lack of concrete institutional steps and the theta-opposed nature of the spike, the move was largely unjustified and is likely to revert (as already underway).

Kill switches:
- White House/Treasury announces Powell’s removal or requests/accepts his resignation effective on/before May 15.
- Powell submits a resignation letter with an effective date on/before May 15, confirmed by the Federal Reserve.
- President formally nominates a successor and Senate leadership schedules an expedited confirmation vote before May 15.
- Fed announces an acting chair will assume duties before May 15, with Powell stepping aside.
- On-record statement from the White House that Powell will be dismissed this week with legal authority cited and timing specified.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.