Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 13.0pp from 77.5% to 64.5% over 1.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 66.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 1.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 31.5%, 72h range: 17.5%-77.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer is out (resigns/removed) by June 30, 2026; NO = he remains PM through that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World.
Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=2, D=1).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 78% to 64%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: incremental E does not reach ≥4 opposing the move; signals are mixed and include offsetting de-escalators for this market’s deadline.
Specifics: fresh E came from the surge in Labour MPs publicly urging resignation and several ministerial aides quitting, plus reports of key faction allies pressing him to go; however, Catherine West backing down to a formal challenge and instead urging a September timetable fails the “by June 30” criterion, and Starmer’s refusal to quit further reduces near-term ouster odds. Given a near-term deadline and theta-aligned drop, with updates emphasizing a later (September) pathway rather than an imminent removal, the 13pp decline is justified by time-decay plus deadline-mismatched pressure; no clear overreaction to fade.