Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 91.8% to 94.8% over 1h (steady). Now at 94.8%.

Days to resolution: 29 days. Theta-bleed check: Not applicable (election market; deadline <90 days but trend is UP, not DOWN). The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES, and the trend is UP, so they ALIGN. Momentum is plateauing: two fresh district-level matchup polls show Choo Mi-ae leading by large margins, and both opposition candidates publicly ruled out unification (supportive context but rhetorical), with no credible counter-signals. After clustering: 2 distinct ★DIRECT polling events from 2 articles; the rest are mostly context about candidate lineup and unity chatter. Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=0. Continuation vs. reversal: support is real but localized (sub-provincial polling) and the price is already near the boundary, limiting follow-through without a province-wide poll or a formal opposition split confirmation. Remaining space: 5.2pp. Hard rule check: Rule 1 (conflict) not triggered; Rule 2 (balanced mixed) not applicable; Rule 3 (ASYMMETRIC MIXED) not used; Rule 4 trigger word (“plateauing”) applies → STALL; Rule 7 boundary caution supports STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.