Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗

Price fell 6.5pp from 49.5% to 43.0% over 8h (steady). Now at 43.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 47.0%, 72h range: 43.0%-54.5%]

Days to resolution: 64 days. Theta-bleed is not a significant factor here, as the deadline is just under 90 days, but over a 2-3 day horizon, time decay is still relatively minor. The trend is DOWN, meaning the probability of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by June 30 (YES) is rising, and the probability of NO is falling. However, there are zero ★DIRECT signals in the news—no reports of Russian capture, confirmed advances into the city, or official declarations. Both retrieved events are CONTEXT only: one is a general campaign assessment (no direct resolution evidence cited), and the other is a dismissive statement from Zelenskyy (rhetoric, not action). News momentum is STARVED—no new concrete developments, and coverage is thin (only 2 events, both context). Per Principle 1 and the military capture module, absence of ★DIRECT signals means no evidence of actual capture or decisive progress. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 43pp. The move is steady, not a spike, but with no direct news, the trend lacks support for further continuation.

Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 4 ("starved") applies—momentum is not intensifying, and there is no concrete action. RULE 2 (both sides ≤2, use judgment) also applies. Theta-bleed is not strong enough to override the absence of news. No rules require CONTINUE or REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.