Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 29.5% to 36.5% over 10.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 30.5%, down 6.0pp from peak, 6.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 29.5%, 72h range: 28.0%-51.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the U.S. Hormuz blockade is lifted by May 22, 2026; NO = blockade persists/no announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). This is a CESSATION market; Cessation D-collapse: raw D≈6 → collapsed D=3. Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=3, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 30% to 36%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose while incremental news (new U.S. sanctions on Iran-linked entities) makes a near-term lifting announcement less likely. No ★ DIRECT evidence of Trump announcing the blockade’s end; by contrast, sanctions and recent reports of U.S. strikes/enforcement actions do not satisfy the settlement criterion and instead signal continuation. Given zero fresh E-signals and one fresh D-signal opposing the move, the 7pp spike looks unjustified and should mean-revert lower.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.