Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 12.0pp from 35.5% to 47.5% over 7h (spike). Now at 47.5%.

Days to resolution: 238 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline > 90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED at best: it is mainly presidential rhetoric that a deal is “very possible” alongside threats, which does not constitute concrete steps toward Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile. Momentum looks plateauing with repeated remarks and process chatter (e.g., Iran “reviewing a U.S. proposal”) but no formal acceptance, signed terms, or IAEA-verified transfer tied to surrender of the stockpile. After clustering: 1 distinct event from 2 ★DIRECT articles (both RHETORIC), so there is no ACTION-tier catalyst behind the spike. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 52.5pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 4 (use of plateauing/echo) and Rule 2 (BALANCED MIXED with zero concrete signals on both sides) bind toward STALL; conflict-ending rules are not applicable because the market is specifically about uranium stockpile surrender.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.