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mr

Iran leadership change by December 31? ↗

iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568 · Iran leadership change by...? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Regime, Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba, Mojtaba Khamenei, Mojtaba out, Politics, ayatollah · resolves
run_id: 2cd8a3b3-0071-43b1-bf5b-ca07bc55bd26 · started · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected
no_trade: action=OMIT
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
UP
current / peak
36.5% / 33.5%
move_start
40.8%
reversal
+3.0pp
move size / hours
7.3pp / 23.5h
shape
back_loaded
72h range
33.5%—37.5% (Δ4.0pp)
since peak
64.5h

Price fell 7.3pp from 40.8% to 33.5% over 23.5h (back_loaded), then reversed. Now at 36.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 64.5h after the trough.

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 370 → 53 quality: HIGH tokens: 13191
iran_leadership_change_events neutral
Air India Stops Flights To Israel Till May 31 Amid Iran War
article_thesis neutral
Iran drones and missiles attack United Arab Emirates
article_precursor neutral
EU ministers split over crisis spending as Iran shock hits energy markets
article_antithesis neutral
US lawmakers step up efforts to strip Trump of authority over Iran war -- RT World News
article_precursor neutral
U.S. Navy Enters Gulf as 'Project Freedom' Tests Iran's Grip on Hormuz | OilPrice.com
article_thesis neutral
Aaaand ... 'Action'? Iran Declares Strait Closed, Shots Exchanged; UAE Targeted
article_thesis neutral
US official says China is 'funding' Iran, urges Beijing to help open Hormuz
article_precursor neutral
UAE reports missile and drone strikes incoming from Iran
article_antithesis neutral
Iran Claims To Hit US Warship In Strait of Hormuz After Trump Announces New Plan To 'Guide' Vessels Out
article_thesis neutral
Iran launches four cruise missiles at the UAE
article_thesis neutral
Support for Iran war among 'connected' US Jews falls again, poll finds
article_antithesis neutral
U.S. War in Iran Leaves Ukraine's Air Defense in Limbo
article_thesis neutral
Emirates restablece operaciones tras el conflicto: ya opera el 96% de los vuelos - ON ECONOMIA
article_thesis neutral
Man and woman arrested after 'arson' on Golders Green memorial wall
article_thesis neutral
OPEC+ Raises Oil Output As Gulf Supply Disruptions Persist Amid Iran War
AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
FAIR conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: None action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 12956 tokens 
Semantic Polarity: YES = a verified change in Iran’s top leadership (death/resignation/removal and succession formalized) by Dec 31; NO = no such change by the deadline. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 41% to 34%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
There are no ★ DIRECT signals about leadership succession mechanisms (e.g., Supreme Leader/President incapacitation, resignation, Assembly of Experts action, coup attempt, or hospitalization); headlines are war-context (missiles, Hormuz, UAE strikes) and do not satisfy leadership-change criteria. With zero opposing E signals and a far-term deadline, the 7pp drop is best explained by time decay rather than resolution-relevant news, so the move is justified and does not demand reversion on news grounds.
rule audit

audit_gate

● executed
✓
ALL
trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped
✕ no_trade: action=OMIT

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.