← back to pipeline
mom
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↗
will-oh-se-hoon-win-the-2026-seoul-mayoral-election
· 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner · category: Elections, Global Elections, Politics, South Korea, World, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: 2f662a40-be38-4c9d-b132-3c678548895f
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
DOWN
current price
10.5%
anchor → trigger
13.5% → 10.5%
cusum @ trigger
-4.17
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
10.5%—13.5%
(Δ3.0pp)
tick density (6h)
0.50
Price fell 3.0pp from 13.5% to 10.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 10.5%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 159 → 3
quality: HIGH
tokens: 15114
gnews_indirect_evidence
direct
오세훈, 정원오에 일대일 토론 제안 - TBS 서울
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
與 "오세훈, 주택공급 씨말려"…국힘 "정원오, 부동산지옥 원인"(종합) - 연합뉴스
gnews_antithesis
relevant
[지선 D-30] ⑨ 여야 대표·잠룡 명운도 선거 결과에…정치권 '주목' - 연합뉴스
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.1.0 · 10136 tokens
Days to resolution: 29 days. Theta-bleed check: This is an election outcome, not a time-decay process market; absence of interim news does not inherently favor YES or NO, so theta-bleed is not active. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (Oh Se-hoon proposing a one-on-one debate), and the trend is DOWN for the NO contract (meaning YES is becoming more likely), so they ALIGN. After clustering: 1 distinct event from 3 total articles; it’s a modest campaign step without corroborating polls or institutional developments in-window, so informational pressure is light. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 10.5pp; with NO already near the lower end, additional downside likely requires stronger catalysts than seen here. Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict (Rule 1), not balanced mixed (Rule 2), spike exhaustion not applicable (Rule 5), no theta-boundary constraint (Rule 7); thus no hard rule forces a continuation call.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.