Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗

Price rose 6.5pp from 32.3% to 38.8% over 63.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 35.7%, down 3.1pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES=Russia captures Kostyantynivka by June 30; NO=it does not by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified); Incremental only: E=2, D=0 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 32% to 39%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No ★ DIRECT confirmation of capture exists, but fresh ACTION-type reports of Russian advances near/into the area (e.g., taking positions in Molocharka and small assault groups reportedly entering Kostyantynivka) are consistent with higher odds while still falling short of the settlement criterion. With E>D and no Logical/Strong Divergence, the 6.5pp rise is supported by medium-impact progress signals rather than mere sentiment, so the move was largely justified and only minor mean reversion is expected.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.