Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? ↗

Price fell 3.5pp from 28.0% to 24.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 24.5%.

Days to resolution: 22 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), so in the absence of strong counter-signals, time decay supports further downward drift. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news is limited to a single event noting that Burt Jones is Trump-endorsed and seeking an edge in the primary, but this is not a new development or a concrete action affecting his probability of winning; it is more background context than a process or polling update. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), but the news does not provide a clear catalyst for this move—there is no new polling, scandal, or process signal directly impacting Jones's chances. News momentum is plateauing: the coverage is mostly generic or background, with no intensifying or fading narrative, and no new actors or concrete developments. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 19.5pp (from 24.5% to 5%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, no balanced mixed, no asymmetric mixed, no spike exhaustion, and theta-bleed is present but not at a boundary. With zero concrete momentum signals and no clear process news, the move appears to be driven by liquidity or background sentiment rather than new information. Per Principle 1, signal quality is low, so continuation is not justified.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.