Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 56.5% to 50.5% over 1.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 52.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 4.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 42.0%, 72h range: 33.5%-65.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran officially closes its national airspace (e.g., NOTAM/government order) by May 31; NO=no such closure by deadline. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=6, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=1 (priced-in: E=3, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 56% to 50%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: incremental opposing E=3 (<4), so the theta-aligned drop stands. There are no ★ DIRECT resolution signals (no Iranian NOTAM, CAA announcement, or airport shut orders); headlines are mostly escalation (US strikes Iranian vessels; explosions in Iran; Iran fires on a South Korean vessel; IRGC 30‑day ultimatum) which, if anything, support higher YES odds, partly offset by limited de-escalatory process signals (Algeria–Iran FM call; Macron urging reopening; Saudi backing mediation). Given a near-term deadline and absence of direct closure steps, a 6pp drift lower over 1.5h is consistent with time decay plus thin D-process and is therefore FAIR rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Iran Civil Aviation Organization issues a nationwide NOTAM closing Iranian airspace to civilian flights.
- Official Iranian government (transport minister/spokesperson) announces temporary or indefinite national airspace closure on state TV or via IRNA.
- Eurocontrol/ICAO publishes a notice confirming closure of Tehran FIR and associated routes.
- Multiple major airlines cite a government directive and suspend all flights/overflights of Iran due to official airspace closure.
- Reuters/AP reports “Iran closes its airspace amid ongoing hostilities,” with timing and authority named.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.