Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 25.5% to 19.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 20.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 30.5%, 72h range: 19.5%-33.5%]

Days to resolution: 238 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news is absent; context leans toward de-escalation (reports of a memo to end the war, Iran “reviewing” a U.S. proposal, mediators engaged), while escalation items are chiefly threats of “much higher-level” bombing that are rhetoric under the military-action rules. The trend is DOWN (NO price fell, implying higher YES), which CONFLICTS with the de-escalatory slant and the coercive-diplomacy pattern (threats alongside active mediation). Momentum looks plateauing and “sources say” driven with competing denials, and there are no physical deployments or orders consistent with an invasion; the front-loaded drop appears more like a rumor/liquidity move than hard information. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 19.5pp. Given the conflict with news tone and spike-exhaustion (−6pp in 1h with no concrete catalyst), a partial retrace is more likely than follow-through; no boundary or theta constraints bind a bounce. Hard rule check: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) pushes STALL/REVERSE; Rule 5 (spike >5pp, plateauing/no fresh catalyst) leans REVERSE; other rules not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.