Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? ↗

Price rose 10.0pp from 45.0% to 55.0% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 55.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 35.0%, 72h range: 35.0%-55.0%] [EVR: 72h range 20.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 156 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side; there are zero direct resolution signals tied to the Nobel Committee, nominations, or an MBS-brokered signed peace accord, while the trend is UP (YES becoming more likely), so alignment is MIXED/NOISE rather than supportive. News momentum is starved/plateauing: items are diplomatic rhetoric and general mediation commentary (Pakistan/China/Saudi calls for peace), not concrete Nobel-relevant actions or signed breakthroughs directly credited to MBS. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With a front-loaded +10pp move in an extreme-volatility regime and no fresh ★DIRECT catalyst, follow-through is likely limited over 2–3 days. Remaining space: 45pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 4 triggers (plateauing/starved language) → STALL; Rule 5 spike exhaustion considered but without evidence of retrace, bias remains STALL; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.