Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? ↗

Price rose 25.5pp from 57.5% to 83.0% over 4.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 78.5%, down 4.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 51.0%, 72h range: 43.0%-83.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump is physically in China on May 13 local date; NO = he is not in China that day. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=2, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 58% to 83%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: the incremental news (e.g., “Trump Confirms China Visit, Hails Upcoming Xi Meeting”) supports the general trip but does not contradict the UP move, and there are not ≥3 opposing D signals. There are no ★ DIRECT, date-specific confirmations for May 13, but with widely reported May 14–15 summit timing, an arrival on May 13 is plausible, so process confirmations reasonably reprice the single-day market. Given the extreme-volatility backdrop (72h range 40pp) and supportive but non-date-specific confirmations, the 25.5pp rise is largely justified by news momentum and proximity; expect only modest mean reversion, not a full fade.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.