← back to pipeline
mr
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? ↗
will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-31-2026-313-388-459-589
· Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? · category: Geopolitics, Hormuz, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, Politics, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S. x Iran
· resolves
run_id: 3e64fbda-df12-4190-bd24-3a6e93fe2d55
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
no_trade: action=OMIT
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
34.5% / 32.5%
move_start
39.4%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
6.9pp / 25.0h
shape
spike
72h range
32.5%—44.5% (Δ12.0pp)
since peak
3.5h
Price fell 6.9pp from 39.4% to 32.5% over 25.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 34.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 3.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 40.5%, 72h range: 32.5%-44.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 337 → 10
quality: HIGH
tokens: 6042
article_thesis
noise
US military signals Qatari jet on track for Air Force One use
article_thesis
noise
Jordan continues lifeline to Gaza with child medical evacuations
article_precursor
relevant
War could resume - Iran warns as negotiations with US stall
article_antithesis
noise
How far did the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act decision go?
article_thesis
noise
Spirit Airlines shutdown row: The key Elizabeth Warren angle in carrier's decision -- Why Biden ally is being blamed
article_precursor
relevant
Iran accuses US of breaking nuclear treaty obligations at UN meeting
article_thesis
direct
Live: Trump says Iran conflict 'terminated' as legal deadline expires
gnews_antithesis
direct
Trump said his blockade would cause Iran's oil industry to 'explode' this week. Why that won't happen - CNBC
gnews_thesis
relevant
Exclusive: Trump rejects Iran's offer, says blockade stays until nuclear deal - Axios
gnews_antithesis
direct
Trump vows to maintain Iran blockade, Tehran threatens ‘practical’ action - Al Jazeera
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
FAIR
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: None
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 13463 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the Hormuz blockade is lifted by May 31, 2026; NO = no such announcement by the deadline. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=2). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: DOWN (from 39% to 32%) Alignment: SAME Theta: DOWN — aligned No Logical Divergence: the drop aligns with fresh D signals and time decay. ★ DIRECT-ish blockers include Trump rejecting Iran’s proposal and stating the blockade remains until a nuclear deal, and reports that negotiations have stalled—none meet the settlement criterion of an announcement lifting the blockade, while one incremental E (Iran’s readiness for talks) is weak against multiple D/status-quo signals (Cessation D-collapse: raw D=2 → collapsed D=1). Given a near-term deadline and theta-aligned bearish news, the 6.9pp fall is justified rather than an overreaction; limited rebound is plausible, but wholesale mean reversion is not.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ no_trade: action=OMIT
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.