Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price fell 17.0pp from 42.5% to 25.5% over 3.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 32.5%, up 7.0pp from trough, 1.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 16.5%, 72h range: 11.5%-42.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran officially closes its airspace (e.g., a nationwide NOTAM/CAA order) by May 8; NO = no such closure occurs by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 42% to 26%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
There is no Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence; the drop is aligned with near-term time-decay and no ★ DIRECT signals (no Iranian NOTAM, no Civil Aviation Organization announcement, no airline compliance order). Context headlines (UN concern, Trump rhetoric, Israel airspace readiness) do not satisfy the settlement criterion of Iran closing its own airspace. With the deadline imminent and no fresh E-signals, a 17pp downward repricing is consistent with theta and thin direct news support; thus the move is justified rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization issues a nationwide NOTAM closing Iranian FIR to civilian flights effective immediately or before May 8.
- Supreme National Security Council/IRGC announces a temporary shutdown of Iranian airspace for security reasons.
- Transport minister or state media confirms an airspace closure window running through May 8.
- Eurocontrol/ICAO bulletin confirms Iran has closed its airspace to overflights.
- Major Iranian airports (IKA, Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz) announce government-ordered suspension of all flights due to airspace closure.