Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? ↗

Price rose 10.0pp from 64.5% to 74.5% over 6h (front_loaded). Now at 74.5%.

Days to resolution: 21 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. YES-WORLD: resolves YES if Choo Kyung-ho wins the 2026 Daegu mayoral election (receives more votes than any opponent). NO-WORLD: resolves NO if another candidate wins, or if pre-election indicators (polls, commentary) occur without an actual Choo win — a NEAR-MISS case. The only ★DIRECT item is a 2026-05-10 poll showing a razor-thin race (possibly not clearly favoring Choo); this is EVIDENCE-tier-via-NEAR-MISS and STALE for this move window. Direction alignment: the ★DIRECT news leans against YES while price moved UP, so this is CONFLICT, and the 6h rise lacks a fresh direct catalyst. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=1; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Given a front-loaded +10pp spike without fresh direct support and Remaining space: 25.5pp, a partial retrace is more likely than follow-through; Hard rules: Rule 1 (CONFLICT ⇒ no CONTINUE) and Rule 5 (spike without new catalyst ⇒ lean REVERSE) apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.