Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? ↗

Price fell 2.7pp from 9.0% to 6.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 6.3%.

Days to resolution: 47 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market (attendance is a positive action), so absent concrete progress toward a US–Iran meeting or confirmed Rubio participation, odds should drift against YES; since the contract observed is NO and it moved DOWN, theta-bleed actually opposes further downside in NO absent news. YES-WORLD: Rubio physically attends the next US–Iran diplomatic meeting (“attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting”). NO-WORLD: The next US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs without Rubio attending, or no such meeting occurs by the resolution date, or any related travel/meetings that are not the US–Iran meeting do not count. All five ★DIRECT items (NY Post, AOL, The Hill, Breitbart, UPI) are EVIDENCE-tier-via-NEAR-MISS — they concern a China visit workaround and Rubio accompanying Trump to Beijing, not Rubio attending a US–Iran diplomatic meeting — NEAR-MISS detected, downgraded from ACTION to EVIDENCE. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news provides no resolution-relevant action for either side; CONTEXT is mixed (one item mentions “progress,” another “stalled” talks) and low-quality, so the news is MIXED and starved relative to the resolution criteria. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero concrete, resolution-relevant signals and theta-bleed favoring NO strength absent progress, a small, news-light downside spike in NO is more likely to stall than to extend; Remaining space: 6.3pp. Hard rules: Rule 4 (starved/plateauing) → STALL; Rule 7 (theta-bleed + near-boundary) supports limited movement; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.