Israel closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price rose 11.5pp from 15.0% to 26.5% over 11.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 24.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Israel issues an official airspace closure (e.g., NOTAM/CAA order) by May 31; NO = airspace remains open. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 15% to 26%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
The sole incremental E is Actuary-style risk (Israeli official says IDF/Mossad presented offensive options vs. Iran), while de-escalatory D signals include Israel–Lebanon talks set to resume (D1) and S&P’s “stable” outlook tied to ceasefire context (D5/D2), which oppose a +11.5pp spike. There is no ★ DIRECT evidence consistent with settlement (no IAA/CAA NOTAMs, no government airspace-closure order, no airport shutdown directive), and cross-border clashes/strikes are background risk, not steps toward closure. A 10pp+ jump on process-only/indirect news with zero direct closure steps is likely an overshoot; expect partial reversion.