Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 20.5% to 26.5% over 5.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 23.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 13.5%, 72h range: 11.5%-26.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran officially closes its airspace (e.g., NOTAM/CAA order) by May 8; NO = airspace remains open through May 8. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 26%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence signal exists because there are no verified DIRECT signals; crucially, there are no ★ DIRECT reports of an airspace NOTAM, aviation authority order, or official closure announcement, and maritime incidents or Hormuz “management” rhetoric do not satisfy airspace-closure criteria. With zero resolution-relevant E/D and a >5pp intraday rise, this looks flow/emotion-driven rather than structural; the 6pp spike is not justified by the provided news and should mean-revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.