Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗

Price rose 2.9pp from 38.8% to 41.7% over 1h (steady). Now at 41.7%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 38.9%, 72h range: 37.9%-50.0%]

Days to resolution: 157 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon since the deadline is >90 days away. The ★DIRECT news during the window is a cluster of multiple reputable polls showing Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula statistically tied in simulated runoffs—this is highly relevant to the market's resolution criteria and directly supports the UP trend (YES becoming more likely). The trend is steady, not a spike, and the news is not echoing old data but reporting fresh polling, so the move is information-driven. The CONTEXT news (commentary on Lula's strength, high rejection rates, third-party dynamics) does not contradict the polling and does not introduce significant resistance. After clustering, there is 1 distinct high-quality momentum event (the new polling), with no counter-signals of similar quality. The story is plateauing in the sense that the polling is the main driver, but this is a concrete, resolution-relevant update, not just opinion or noise. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 8.3pp (to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not mixed, not a spike, and the concrete polling event is widely confirmed, not echo. Per Principle 1, the quality of this polling outweighs the lack of quantity.