Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? ↗

Price fell 14.0pp from 92.6% to 78.6% over 7.0h (back_loaded), then reversed. Now at 80.7%, up 2.1pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Powell is out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026; NO = Powell remains Chair through that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=1 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 93% to 79%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence exists (no fresh E signals opposing the drop). The only concrete development is process/institutional (reporting that Kevin Warsh was confirmed as a Fed Governor), which is not a resolution-level action for “Powell out” and does not satisfy the settlement criteria; there is no confirmed resignation/removal or Chair successor appointment/confirmation. With just days left, a sharp pullback from very high odds is consistent with near-deadline time decay absent direct confirmation, so the 14pp drop is justified by theta rather than news and does not, on its own, invite a strong mean-reversion bid.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.