Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? ↗

Price rose 8.4pp from 0.1% to 8.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 8.5%.

Days to resolution: 54 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline <90 days but trend is UP and the market requires a positive, specific action (venue announcement), so theta-bleed is not pushing the current move. The ★DIRECT news predominantly does not substantively support YES; items cite “talks gaining momentum” and an Iran–China meeting, but there is no confirmation of a US–Iran meeting or its venue, so the UP move conflicts with settlement-relevant evidence. Momentum toward the venue criterion is not intensifying and is starved of location-specific details; the one concrete action (pausing a naval escort plan) is de-escalatory context, not venue news. After clustering: 2 distinct events from 4 total ★DIRECT articles; neither provides a concrete venue signal for a US–Iran meeting. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero actionable signals tied to the venue and a >5pp spike likely driven by broad “talks” chatter, reversal pressure outweighs continuation. Remaining space: 91.5pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 1 (news–trend conflict) allows STALL/REVERSE; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion with no settlement-relevant catalyst) leans REVERSE; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.