Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price rose 36.2pp from 29.8% to 66.0% over 6h (spike). Now at 66.0%. [EVR: 72h range 36.2pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 54 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here (deadline > 90 days), so time decay does not strongly bias the price. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no new polls, official filings, or concrete developments directly touching Paloma Valencia’s probability of winning. The trend is sharply UP (+36.2pp spike), implying YES is becoming more likely, but the news does not align: all coverage is CONTEXT, and the most recent credible polls (multiple sources: Invamer, GAD3, AtlasIntel) consistently show Iván Cepeda leading by a wide margin, with Valencia trailing and sometimes even at risk of missing the second round. No new poll or event justifies a sudden surge in her probability. The only Valencia-specific news is her denunciation of a FARC assassination plot, which is a security/violence story, not a signal of electoral momentum. There are a few mentions of new endorsements and some right-wing infighting, but these are not high-quality signals and do not outweigh the polling. News momentum is plateauing: the same actors (Cepeda, Valencia, De la Espriella) are discussed, with no new concrete developments. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=3 (multiple polls showing Cepeda leading, Valencia not leading in any). Remaining space: 34pp (from 66% to 100%). Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 5 (SPIKE EXHAUSTION) binds—the move is a >30pp spike with no matching catalyst, and the news is not intensifying or supportive. RULE 1 (NEWS-TREND CONFLICT) also applies: news is clearly one-directional (Cepeda leads), price moves opposite (Valencia up), so STALL or REVERSE is required.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.