Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? ↗

Price fell 17.0pp from 47.5% to 30.5% over 28.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 32.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 4.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = no new UK Prime Minister is appointed at any point in 2026 (Starmer survives/any change happens outside 2026); NO = a new PM is appointed during 2026. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=1, D=2 (priced-in: E=1, D=1).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 48% to 30%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — no alignment (appointment/leadership market)
No Strong Divergence: price fell and the fresh momentum was D-leaning, so direction was aligned. ★ DIRECT-adjacent items include a Labour MP (Catherine West) threatening to trigger a leadership contest by Monday and reports of 100+ Labour politicians urging Starmer to resign (both increase the chance of a 2026 appointment), partially offset by Starmer’s own on-record pledge to “hang on.” None of this meets resolution criteria (no resignation, no formal contest underway, no new PM appointed), but the surge from “grumbling” to explicit challenge threats and mass calls to quit legitimately reopens the pathway to a 2026 change, supporting a sizable repricing. Given the heavy, coherent flow against survival and only minimal counter-signals, the 17pp drop was largely justified by news rather than overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.